So I plugged in some of the numbers from the Democratic Primary so far in order to see how it’s all really playing out.
As of now the reported delegate count (excluding super-delegates) is 1,289 for Hillary and 1,038 for Sanders. Knowing that delegates within a state aren’t given out based on the overall voting % in a state but rather on the % within certain districts (look at the Washington results for a good example of a truly strange system), I figured I’d see what the count would look like if each sate awarded delegates strictly based on the overall percentage (and then split up the super-delegates in the same way). Here’s what I found.
If you add the delegates up this way there are a couple states with small changes (ex. Texas changes by 3, Bama and Nevada by 2, etc.) and then there’s Washington. If it was strictly split up on percentage then right now Washington’s 101 delegates would be split 73:27 (float the rounding delegate to your liking) as opposed to 25:9 as it sits now. I’m not gonna go into detail about it right now but essentially only the first 34 delegates are bound by what the states voting decides and the other 67 can theoretically do what they want, but typically stick to the voting split.
Regardless though, if all delegates in the states were split proportionally what would it look like?
Hillary Clinton: 1,277 (198)
Bernie Sanders: 1,068 (185)
So if you put it all together she maintains a 223 total delegate lead (209 regular delegates) as opposed to the current 689 delegate lead (251 regular). With nearly 2,000 delegates still on the table a gap of 223 certainly would make this a much more interesting race. Even as we sit though, a 251 delegate actual difference is the real thing to keep an eye on. If New York flips on voting day or any other series of events transpire then this is going to turn into a crazy race to the finish.