Negotiations are at hand today. At hand is the US future in the Asian region. I hear talk about what our president wants and what their president is possibly offering. Nobody talks about the long game of what’s beyond the initial asks and gives.
How I see things:
Simply put, any sphere of influence the US has in the Asia Pacific region relies in the US having a presence of some kind that matters to the area. The US has a large military force due to the Korea’s and the threats of violence between them. IF any peace exists between the Koreas and NK isn’t a threat to the safety of anyone, guess what military activity will be asked to downsize significantly if not outright leave some parts. They won’t even ask. There will be significant pressure to remove a needless military. Without a US presence to protect allies due to a lack of threat, there will be little influence the US can exert and China and Russia are poised to swallow up that vacuum. Unless of course the US has something else to play, such as being the force that brought peace to the area on favorable terms.
This is what long game I am referring to. If peace happens between The Koreas without any US part of it, the US will not have any influence and will lose out when China takes over all the trade route territorial waters and expands it’s already larger influence in a playground the US is barely involved in at that point. Russia will also deal it’s efforts to help that along because whatever keeps the US out of it’s business is something they very much like.
So let’s look at what was the Pacific trade agreement. It had language within it to bring any participating country up in terms of labor laws, union laws, health and ecology (epa stuff) laws that they would have to follow. However “terrible and bad for America” it may have looked on the surface, revealed it’s true intentions inside, where nobody read. It’s theory was to correct many manufacturing issues and by doing so, products would of course become more expensive to make. The trade imbalances would improve for the US as a result of bringing up the countries it works and trades with. China was not part of it. But now that we are out of the agreement, China has no problem making those countries partners with them and they have NO terms of environment, labor laws, unions, health, etc. Just money for product. Without the US at all in the area for peacekeeping, economy, environment, then China and Russia get to run free with their influence and suddenly the whole of the far east is shut off form anything the US may want to be involved in. Their economy will become much stronger and they won’t have to do anything anyone says because anyone else’s asks carry no weight in the region. See where I’m going?
The US will become that 2nd world country at the UN with a problem nobody cares about.
Global trade routes in and out of any Asian region manufacturing center will be all China controlled. and much more expensive to avoid (driving out of the way to not use a toll road could cost more money and time than just paying the toll road)
I hate to say it, but if the US and the rest of the global economic trade that even has nothing to do with the US is to stay safe, the US must be the one that brings the Korean peace puzzle to a close. They, Asian states as a group, have been waiting for this sort of US presidential scenario and they are working to capitalize on it and get the US out of their soup once and for all.
That’s the long game. Peace? Whatever. getting the US out is the real game here and when the US president doesn’t hold any cards, walks into a negotiation and declares Kim not serious and leaves, guess who will come in and make it really work? China or president Moon or even Putin who will have no problem becoming a great peacemaker! Imagine that! When that happens, the US will have lost influence, trade, shipping, any tariff control, in one half of the planet if not on a massive global level.
Have fun with that.
My opinion editorial piece is over, you may now resume naked swimming.