Buffer image! =)
Came across this over at FiveThirtyEight. Compares approval ratings of past presidents in their first 4 years with our current president. Both W and Obama were below 50% at this point, but not as low as Trump, and managed to get a little upswing before November and got re-elected*. HW and Carter both had lower approval ratings than Trump at this point, and were one-termers. Clearly, DJT’s approval has been historically low compared with all except Ford on this graphic, but all indications point to the fact that he has a very loyal base that will not budge in their support, regardless of what he does or says.
Headlines are already starting to basically predict him losing. I’d be surprised if he won a second term, but clearly, everyone thought Hillary was going to win by a landslide in ‘16, too, so all it matters is who actually shows up to vote, and where (who knows what the virus situation will be like then, and how easy/hard each respective state will make mail-in voting).
Here’s what 270ToWin’s map looks like right now:
Feel free to vent about the Electoral College, but it’s not going anywhere any time soon, so I wouldn’t waste your breathe.
One thing that will be interesting this time around is whether we’ll know the winner the night of the election or not. Odds are many, many more will be mailing in ballots this election, so it could be days (weeks?) before we know the full counts in some places.
And can you imagine what the debates are going to be like? Hooo, boy...
What does Biden have to do to screw this up? Will #MeToo come into play? Trump can’t really press that angle, but will some women not show up because of it? He clearly has work to do with the BLM movement, too.
What would Trump have to do to win a second term? Seems like everyone’s minds are made up on him, one way or another.
Let’s keep it civil in here. Thanks.